ADP Price & AI Analysis — Automatic Data Processing Inc | HeyTheo
Market Cap
97.0875B
Large Cap
P/E Ratio
22.66
Fwd: 20
EPS (TTM)
$10.72
Div. Yield
2.67%
Theo Outlook
ADP presents a bullish thesis with a market capitalization of $102.0 billion, a trailing P/E ratio of 23.81, forward P/E of 21.01, and trailing EPS of $10.72. Revenue reached $21.60 billion TTM with 7% year-over-year quarterly growth, supported by a 2.53% dividend yield and $6.48 per share payout. The company's stable cash flows and 71.2% return on equity underscore its defensive positioning in the HR technology sector amid steady demand for payroll and workforce management solutions.
Key catalysts include ongoing cloud migration of its HCM platforms, expansion into mid-market and international segments, and consistent earnings momentum with 10.5% quarterly EPS growth. ADP's fiscal year ending June 2026 positions it for continued product innovation in AI-driven analytics and compliance tools, driving operating margins of 30.2% and analyst target prices averaging $252.80.
Risks encompass regulatory scrutiny on data privacy and employment laws, intensifying competition from cloud-native HR providers, and macro headwinds such as economic slowdowns reducing hiring activity. Mitigations involve ADP's entrenched client base of over 1 million clients, diversified revenue streams, and proactive investments in compliance technology to maintain its 20.1% profit margin and market leadership.
Company Overview
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) is an American provider of human resources management software and services.
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ADP operates as a leading provider of human capital management software and services, generating revenue primarily through recurring subscription fees for payroll, HR, and talent solutions. With $21.60 billion in TTM revenue and a 20.1% profit margin, the model emphasizes high-margin, sticky SaaS-like contracts serving over one million clients globally.
What are ADP's main revenue sources?
ADP derives the bulk of its $21.60 billion TTM revenue from employer services including payroll processing, benefits administration, and time/attendance tracking, supplemented by professional employer organization (PEO) services. Recurring revenue accounts for the majority, supported by 7% YoY quarterly growth and a 30.2% operating margin.
What are ADP's key competitive advantages?
ADP benefits from massive scale, a 91.9% institutional ownership rate, and deep integration with client systems that create high switching costs. Its 23.81 trailing P/E and $102.0 billion market cap reflect strong moats in compliance expertise and data security, alongside a 2.53% dividend yield that appeals to income investors.
What are the key risks for ADP investors?
Primary risks include data privacy regulations, competition from fintech disruptors, and sensitivity to employment cycles that could pressure its 7% revenue growth. With a beta of 0.84 and next ex-dividend date of June 12, 2026, ADP mitigates these through diversification and its $252.80 analyst target price providing a valuation cushion.
What is ADP's growth outlook?
ADP's outlook remains positive with expected continued 7%+ revenue expansion driven by digital transformation and AI features, targeting $252.80 per share. Supported by 10.72 EPS, 23.81 P/E, and upcoming earnings following the March 31, 2026 quarter, the company is positioned for steady mid-single-digit growth and dividend increases.
ADPNASDAQ— Automatic Data Processing Inc Price & Analysis