US Markets Weekly Recap: Jobs Shock, Iran Risk, and the CPI Week Ahead

How the week closed

The S&P 500 climbed 0.1% for the week, the Dow fell 0.3% and the Nasdaq climbed 0.4%. A flat scoreboard hiding a week that repriced the September Fed decision twice. Here's everything that mattered, in order.

1. Major company and policy news

US–Iran conflict reignited. The US and Iran exchanged strikes for the first time since July, sending oil up more than 3% on Monday and lifting Halliburton, Chevron, Valero and Occidental. Two tankers — one Saudi, one South Korean-owned — were hit near the Strait of Hormuz in a six-month conflict now locked in stalemate. Oil is the wild card the Fed can't model.

Fed-speak whiplash. Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation remained too high. Then New York Fed President Williams said a September hike wasn't necessarily required, and Governor Waller suggested improving inflation could justify holding. In four days, markets went from "hike likely" to a coin flip.

Snowflake vs Broadcom — the AI trade splits. Snowflake jumped more than 16% on a Q2 beat and strong guidance; Broadcom fell nearly 3% on a soft fiscal Q4 revenue forecast. Investors are getting choosier about which parts of the AI trade deserve a premium.

Nvidia deepens its web. A $3.5 billion investment in Taiwanese chipmaker MediaTek, extending Nvidia's reach across the AI ecosystem.

PG&E's California setback. Shares sank 16% after state lawmakers blocked a proposal to cap wildfire-liability claims against utilities.

2. Major macroeconomic news

The week's data told two conflicting stories. Midweek: ADP showed private employers adding just 38,000 jobs and jobless claims ticked up to 206,000 — the "low hire, low fire" economy. Then Friday's official report landed: 162,000 jobs added in August against a 55,000 estimate, unemployment steady at 4.1%, and July revised up by 44,000 to +21,000, erasing a previously reported decline.

Strong data, weak tape. Yields jumped, the dollar firmed, and rate-hike odds for September climbed back toward 58%. The market's logic is simple: the more resilient the economy, the less urgency the Fed has to ease.

3. Top SPY gainers and losers this week

Gainers: Snowflake (+16%, earnings), Pfizer (52-week high), Marathon Petroleum (52-week high) — with energy still the year's runaway sector, up 43% YTD.

Losers: Lululemon (−18% after cutting full-year guidance; Q3 outlook of $0.93–$0.98 EPS vs $2.40 expected), PG&E (−16%), and Nike, which touched $38.07 — a level not seen in over twenty years — alongside 52-week lows in Wynn, Las Vegas Sands and Carnival.

4. S&P 500: resistance and support levels

The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 7,747.71 before Friday's 0.4% pullback left the index near 7,715 — right at the lower edge of its overhead zone.

Resistance: a zone from roughly 7,720 to 7,780, formed by converging trend lines and moving averages, with record highs near 7,800 as the ceiling.

Support: roughly 7,675 first, then the 7,600 shelf, with the 50-day moving average near 7,560 as the deeper structural level.

The index enters CPI week pinned against the underside of resistance — reclaim the zone and 7,800 is the magnet; lose 7,675 and the shelf at 7,600 becomes the test. Reference points, not predictions. Next Friday's CPI (Sep 11) can redraw this map in a morning.

5. Upcoming macro: US and global

Markets are closed Monday, September 7 for Labor Day. Then:

Tuesday brings NFIB small-business optimism and China's August CPI/PPI overnight. Thursday, September 10 is the heavy day: the ECB rate decision plus August PPI and core PPI. Friday, September 11 delivers August CPI and core CPI — the print that, per economists, has the power to decide whether the Fed hikes or holds on September 16.

One structural note: the Fed's quiet period began Saturday, September 5 and runs through the meeting. No speeches left to reframe the data. The numbers speak for themselves now.

6. Upcoming corporate events

A light earnings week with heavyweight names: Oracle, Adobe and Macy's report Thursday, September 10; Kroger follows Friday. Casey's General Stores and GameStop report Tuesday after the close.

The bigger corporate catalyst may be conference season: Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology (Sep 8–11), Citigroup TMT, Barclays Global Consumer and Wells Fargo Healthcare all run this week. Mid-conference guidance updates routinely move individual names more than scheduled earnings.

7. Corporate action

Nvidia's $3.5 billion MediaTek investment was the week's headline capital deployment. Beyond that, the tanker and shipping complex — DHT, Frontline, Genco and peers — hit 52-week highs Friday as Hormuz risk repriced freight. No major S&P 500 splits, spin-offs or dividend changes crossed this week; we'll flag the pending Honeywell spin (HONA) once listing details are confirmed.

8. Theo's view

We don't do verdicts — we map the cases.

Bull case: corporate profits remain healthy, AI capex remains extraordinary, and the economy keeps surprising with resilience. Thursday's rally showed how fast sentiment recovers when yields ease.

Bear case: that same resilience keeps the Fed hawkish, oil stays elevated on Iran risk, and consumer names — Lululemon this week, Nike all year — keep getting punished for any demand weakness.

What to watch: Thursday's PPI, Friday's CPI, and whether SPY defends 767 or reclaims 778. If you want to see how the index has historically behaved through CPI weeks, run it through the backtester yourself. Hypothetical backtests reflect past data, not future results.

SOURCES

CNBC market coverage (Aug 31–Sep 4)
Yahoo Finance / TheStreet Stock Market Today
Investrade weekly review and event calendar
Charles Schwab market update
Kiplinger economic calendar

DISCLAIMER

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