Market Trends & Macro

Market analysis, investing strategies, and AI-powered financial insights from the HeyTheo research team.

Market Trends & Macro

Central banks buying gold about four times faster than before 2022: about 79 tonnes in August against a 17-tonne monthly average, with the dollar's share of reserves at 56.7%

Central Banks Are Buying Gold 4x Faster. Here's What They Know About the Dollar.

Central banks are buying gold at four times their pre-2022 pace and moving it out of New York. Here is why, what it means for Treasury yields and the Fed, and which sectors gain or pay as the shift continues.

Ankur Tripathi

Market Analyst

7 min read

Oct 23, 2026

Gasoline up 34.2% and airline fares up 22.4% over the year to September 2026, against core inflation of 2.6%

Market Trends & Macro

Gas Is Up 34% in a Year. The Inflation Line That Matters Is Airline Fares.

Gasoline is up 34% in a year and drives most of 2026's headline inflation. The line that shows whether fuel is leaking into everything else is airline fares, inside core. Here is the three-line test for every inflation report through year-end.

Ankur Tripathi

Market Analyst

7 min read

Oct 14, 2026

US payrolls of 29,000 against a 90,000 estimate alongside euro area inflation of 3.8% with core at 2.5%, showing Europe with the higher headline and America with the higher core.

Market Trends & Macro

Europe Has the Higher Inflation. America Has the Worse Kind.

September payrolls came in at 29,000 against a 90,000 estimate on the same morning euro area inflation hit 3.8%. Read together, the two reports say Europe's price problem has an expiry date and America's does not.

Ankur Tripathi

Market Analyst

6 min read

Oct 2, 2026

Core PCE at 3.0% against 3.3% expected, spending up 0.9% on 0.0% real income growth, with the 10-year at 5.282% and October hike odds near 50%.

Market Trends & Macro

Spending Surged 0.9%. Real Income Rose 0.0%. Guess Where the Difference Came From.

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge undershot by three tenths and consumers spent anyway. The bond market raised long yields to a fresh high in response. Four sectors spent September down more than 6% waiting for exactly this print.

Ankur Tripathi

Market Analyst

7 min read

Sep 30, 2026

A $5,000 cheque for 250 million adults costs about $1.25 trillion, against roughly $125 billion a year in net tariff revenue, while Americans bore 86 to 94 percent of the tariff.

Market Trends & Macro

$5,000 a Head, a $1.25 Trillion Bill, and One Awkward Question: Who Paid the Tariff?

A cheque for every adult citizen, funded by tariff revenue. The arithmetic says the tariffs raise about a tenth of what the cheques cost. The economics says something more uncomfortable, and Milton Friedman is on both sides of it.

Ankur Tripathi

Market Analyst

5 min read

Sep 30, 2026

Four overlooked government reports: consumer credit at a 22.15% card rate, households expecting to spend 5.2% against 3.0% income growth, an activity index back at trend, and a trade deficit down 29.6% this year.

Market Trends & Macro

The Fed Won't Tell You What's Coming. These Four Reports Will.

Four government data releases almost nobody reads are already describing the next six months: credit card balances growing 2.5% while the rate on carried balances hits 22.15%, households planning to spend 5.2% more than they earn, an activity index back at trend, and a trade deficit down 29.6% this year. What each says now, and when it next lands.

Ankur Tripathi

Market Analyst

8 min read

Sep 24, 2026

Weekly recap banner for Sep 14 to 18, 2026: the Fed hiked once and the bond market hiked everything, with the 10-year yield above 5% for the first time since July 2007.

Market Trends & Macro

US Markets Weekly Recap: The Fed's First Hike Since 2023 and the Return of 5% (Sep 14–18, 2026)

The Fed hiked to 3.75%-4.00%, the 10-year closed above 5% for the first time since 2007, and diesel hit a record. The full week, the cross-asset table, and what decides next week.

Ankur Tripathi

Market Analyst

7 min read

Sep 19, 2026

The Bank of Japan raises rates to 1.25%, a 31-year high, in a 7 to 2 vote, with Japan's 10-year bond yield at 3.02% and about 1.19 trillion dollars of US Treasuries held.

Market Trends & Macro

Japan Just Raised Rates to 1.25%. The World's Cheapest Money Is Gone.

The Bank of Japan hiked to a 31-year high on Friday, two days after the Fed and against its own government's appointees. The plain-English read: why oil forced it, what the 7 to 2 vote means, how rates travel both ways between Tokyo and Washington, and why Japan's share of US Treasury holdings falling from 17% to 13% matters more than any headline sale.

Ankur Tripathi

Market Analyst

7 min read

Sep 18, 2026

The Fed raises rates to 3.75 to 4 percent in a 12 to 0 vote, its first hike since 2023, with most officials expecting one more.

Market Trends & Macro

"Inflation Is a Choice." The Fed Just Chose, 12 to 0.

The Fed raised rates to 3.75% to 4.00%, its first hike since 2023, in a unanimous vote. The plain-English read: who voted, what the dot plot says about 2026 to 2028, why the Fed hiked with core CPI at a five-year low, President Trump's 1% call, how oil shapes near-term inflation, and the dated markers ahead.

Ankur Tripathi

Market Analyst

8 min read

Sep 17, 2026