Central Banks Are Buying Gold 4x Faster. Here's What They Know About the Dollar.

The world's central banks are adding gold at roughly four times their pre-2022 pace, and some are moving the gold they already own out of New York. They are not dumping the dollar. They are quietly lowering how much they depend on it. That shift has a cost, and US bond yields, the Fed and several corners of the stock market are already paying it.

HeyTheo Research · Friday, October 23, 2026

Quick Read

• Central banks bought about 79 tonnes of gold in August, by one bank's estimate, against a pre-2022 average of about 17 tonnes a month. China has added gold for 23 straight months.

• France sold 129 tonnes of gold held in New York and rebought the same amount in Europe. The Netherlands moved 86 tonnes from North America home.

• The dollar's share of global reserves slipped to 56.7% in the second quarter. A record 45% of central banks plan to add gold in the next year.

• Fewer foreign buyers for Treasuries means higher long-term yields, which complicates the Fed's job and weighs on rate-sensitive stocks. Gold miners like Newmont (NEM) sit on the other side.

What changed

Central banks have bought gold for years. The pace is what is new.

Source: Goldman Sachs via Fortune, World Gold Council, IMF COFER

The second change is location. France sold 129 tonnes of the gold it kept in New York and bought the same amount in Europe, so its total did not change, only where it sits. The Netherlands moved 86 tonnes from North America to European vaults. Central banks have also become less willing to say where their gold is stored.

The why: three reasons, one theme

1. Assets can be frozen. In 2022, Western governments froze much of Russia's foreign reserves held abroad. Every reserve manager watched. Gold held in your own vault cannot be frozen by someone else. That is why the shift is about where gold sits, not only how much.

2. US debt and rates. Reserve managers in a World Gold Council survey cited concerns about US inflation, interest rates and rising government debt. A Treasury bond is still the most liquid asset in the world, but its value depends on US policy. Gold depends on no one's.

3. A more dangerous world. The Iran war, the Hormuz disruption and attacks on Gulf energy sites have made geopolitical risk a standing item on every reserve committee's agenda. About 90% of central banks in the survey said they value gold for how it holds up in a crisis.

The theme: not leaving the dollar, but lowering dependence on any one country.

Research cue · try it in HeyTheo

Ask Theo for the bull case, bear case and what to watch on Newmont, and add: "how much does its profit change for every $100 move in gold?" Miners earn more as gold rises because their costs stay roughly fixed, and that works in both directions. Open HeyTheo

Start with: search NEM, then ask the question above.

What it means for the Fed

This is the part most coverage skips.

Foreign central banks have long been steady buyers of US Treasuries. When they buy less, the Treasury has to attract other buyers, and they want higher yields. India's Treasury holdings, for example, have fallen to about $181 billion, a six-year low.

That lands at a hard moment. The 10-year Treasury yield has spent recent weeks near or above 5%, September inflation came in at 3.7%, oil is back near $108, and futures put the odds of a December Fed hike at about 88%. The Fed sets short-term rates. It does not control who buys long-term bonds. If foreign demand keeps fading, long yields can stay high even if the Fed stops hiking.

There is also an old rule this breaks. Gold usually struggles when real interest rates are high, because it pays no interest. Gold is still above $4,000 an ounce, even after a rough week, with yields near 5%. That tells you the biggest buyers are not trading on yield. They are buying insurance, and they are not very sensitive to price.

As we laid out in our guide to reading inflation this fall and our note on oil at $110, energy prices are already keeping inflation sticky. Weaker foreign demand for Treasuries adds a second source of upward pressure on yields.

Research cue · try it in HeyTheo

Build two baskets: gold miners and royalty companies on one side, and rate-sensitive stocks like homebuilders and utilities on the other. Track them against each other through the Fed meeting on Oct 27-28. If the gap widens, the market is pricing yields staying high. Open HeyTheo

Start with: search NEM for the first basket and a homebuilder you follow for the second.

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Sector churn right now

On the gaining side. Gold miners such as Newmont and Agnico Eagle (AEM) earn more on each ounce when prices are high, because mining costs do not rise as fast as gold. Royalty companies such as Franco-Nevada (FNV) collect a share of production without running mines.

On the paying side. Higher long-term yields raise mortgage rates and borrowing costs. US homebuilder confidence fell to 29 this week, its lowest since 2012. Utilities and real estate, which borrow heavily and are valued like bonds, fell the most on Oct 19 as yields rose. High-growth tech, valued on profits far in the future, also feels higher yields.

Where it goes from here

The survey points one way. 83% of central banks expect gold's share of global reserves to rise over the next five years, and 74% expect the dollar's share to fall. A record 45% plan to add to their own gold in the next year.

The pace will not be smooth. Purchases early in 2026 were revised lower, and gold fell 8.5% in September before recovering. And the dollar is not being replaced. At 56.7%, it is still more than half of all reserves, far ahead of anything else. What is changing is the margin, and in bond markets the margin sets the price.

Four things to watch:

• IMF reserve data, every quarter: the dollar's share.

• World Gold Council monthly statistics: whether buying holds near this pace.

• US Treasury data on foreign holdings: who is buying less.

• Long-term Treasury auctions: how much yield it takes to sell them.

Research cue · try it in HeyTheo

Set a trigger on any gold miner or rate-sensitive stock you hold: "tell me if the 10-year Treasury yield moves more than 0.15 points in a day." Then use the backtester to see how the stock traded around past spikes in yields. It shows how exposed your holding is to the bond market. Open HeyTheo

Start with: search the stock you hold, then set the yield trigger.

Research it yourself: rules HeyTheo tracks

• Gold vs rates basket. Gold miners and royalty companies tracked against homebuilders, utilities and real estate.

• Yield move trigger. Flags days when the 10-year Treasury yield moves sharply.

• Commodity trigger. Flags any day gold moves more than 2%.

• Ask Theo. Try: "Which of my holdings are most sensitive to long-term interest rates?" or "Give me the bull and bear case on gold miners if central bank buying slows."

Check the rule behind any trigger before acting on it. You trade through your own broker; HeyTheo helps you decide.

The Quiet Hedge

Central banks are not selling America. They are buying insurance against depending on it too much, and moving that insurance into vaults they control.

For investors, the effect shows up in places that look unrelated: a gold miner's margin, a homebuilder's order book, a utility's borrowing cost, and the yield the Treasury has to pay. Know which of your holdings sit on each side of that shift.

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Sources

World Gold Council, IMF, Goldman Sachs, Fortune, Central Banking, Analytics Insight, Hokanews, NAHB, Capp Notes, Kitco

Disclaimer

Disclaimer: HeyTheo is a research and education platform, not an investment adviser or broker-dealer. Nothing here is advice to buy, sell, or hold any security. You trade through your own broker; HeyTheo helps you decide. Backtested results are hypothetical and do not guarantee future returns. References to governments, officials, or policies are for market context only and are not political endorsements. All investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Data is as of the dates noted.