HeyTheo Blog — Page 3

Market analysis, investing strategies, and AI-powered financial insights from the HeyTheo research team.

Latest Articles

Four overlooked government reports: consumer credit at a 22.15% card rate, households expecting to spend 5.2% against 3.0% income growth, an activity index back at trend, and a trade deficit down 29.6% this year.

The Fed Won't Tell You What's Coming. These Four Reports Will.

Four government data releases almost nobody reads are already describing the next six months: credit card balances growing 2.5% while the rate on carried balances hits 22.15%, households planning to spend 5.2% more than they earn, an activity index back at trend, and a trade deficit down 29.6% this year. What each says now, and when it next lands.

Ankur Tripathi

Market Analyst

8 min read

Sep 24, 2026

The world is trading around America: the EU, China and India signing trade deals with each other while the US effective tariff rate rose from 2.3% to 6.7%.

Market Analysis

The World Is Trading Around America. What It Means for US Investors.

The EU-Philippines trade deal is one of about a dozen pacts the EU, China and India closed in the past year while the US raised tariffs instead. The near-term hit to US companies is small, but US exporters are already losing ground in India and South America, and US companies that build abroad are gaining.

Ankur Tripathi

Market Analyst

7 min read

Sep 23, 2026

Five AI stocks valued: Nvidia at 18.9 times forward earnings against a 38.5 average, Alphabet's 17.8 trailing P/E inflated by paper gains, and the group earning 4.3% against a 4.96% Treasury.

Investing

The Cheapest AI Stock Looks Expensive. The Expensive One Looks Cheap.

Five years of profit, revenue and price for Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta. Three of the five trade below their own five-year average, but only Nvidia earns more than a 10-year Treasury on forward profit, Alphabet's low P/E is inflated by $99 billion of paper gains, and one session pushed Meta above its average.

Ankur Tripathi

Market Analyst

7 min read

Sep 22, 2026

Rare earths versus Russian oil: the two cards behind the Trump-Xi summit, with the sanctions law signed Sep 18, the meeting on Sep 24, and the Nov 10 deadline.

Market Analysis

Rare Earths vs. Russian Oil: The Two Cards Behind Thursday's Trump-Xi Handshake

Stocks rallied on Bessent's upbeat China talks. But five days before Xi arrives, Trump signed a law that can tariff the Russian oil China now relies on, and China's rare-earth pause expires Nov 10. A geoeconomic read on the Iran and Russia threads, what BRICS changed, three ways Thursday can go, and what it means for US sectors and households.

Ankur Tripathi

Market Analyst

8 min read

Sep 21, 2026

The real US sector map: refining, memory, cyber and health care lead while defense and utilities fall, with the diesel crack spread above 106 dollars and the 10-year Treasury near 5%.

Market Analysis

Diesel Beat AI. Memory Beat Everything. Here's the Real Sector Map.

Four sectors pulled away over the past month, and the list is not the one the headlines suggest: refining, memory and storage, cybersecurity, and health care. Two crowded favourites, defense and power, are already breaking. The fundamentals behind each, where professional money actually went in August, the exact numbers to follow, and the dated catalysts for the next six months.

Ankur Tripathi

Market Analyst

8 min read

Sep 20, 2026

Weekly recap banner for Sep 14 to 18, 2026: the Fed hiked once and the bond market hiked everything, with the 10-year yield above 5% for the first time since July 2007.

Market Trends & Macro

US Markets Weekly Recap: The Fed's First Hike Since 2023 and the Return of 5% (Sep 14–18, 2026)

The Fed hiked to 3.75%-4.00%, the 10-year closed above 5% for the first time since 2007, and diesel hit a record. The full week, the cross-asset table, and what decides next week.

Ankur Tripathi

Market Analyst

7 min read

Sep 19, 2026

The Bank of Japan raises rates to 1.25%, a 31-year high, in a 7 to 2 vote, with Japan's 10-year bond yield at 3.02% and about 1.19 trillion dollars of US Treasuries held.

Market Trends & Macro

Japan Just Raised Rates to 1.25%. The World's Cheapest Money Is Gone.

The Bank of Japan hiked to a 31-year high on Friday, two days after the Fed and against its own government's appointees. The plain-English read: why oil forced it, what the 7 to 2 vote means, how rates travel both ways between Tokyo and Washington, and why Japan's share of US Treasury holdings falling from 17% to 13% matters more than any headline sale.

Ankur Tripathi

Market Analyst

7 min read

Sep 18, 2026

The Fed raises rates to 3.75 to 4 percent in a 12 to 0 vote, its first hike since 2023, with most officials expecting one more.

Market Trends & Macro

"Inflation Is a Choice." The Fed Just Chose, 12 to 0.

The Fed raised rates to 3.75% to 4.00%, its first hike since 2023, in a unanimous vote. The plain-English read: who voted, what the dot plot says about 2026 to 2028, why the Fed hiked with core CPI at a five-year low, President Trump's 1% call, how oil shapes near-term inflation, and the dated markers ahead.

Ankur Tripathi

Market Analyst

8 min read

Sep 17, 2026

Nvidia's customers said slow down, Jensen Huang said run: the pace-together camp of Amodei, Altman and Musk against Huang's pace-yourself camp, with Nvidia's Monday close and 108 billion dollar guide.

Market Analysis

Nvidia's Own Customers Said Slow Down. Jensen Huang Said Run.

Three days after Amodei, Altman and Musk asked to pace the frontier, Huang said the industry needs no new laws. The desk's read: both camps accept outside testers, the real split is who sets the speed, only one side needs Washington's permission, and Nvidia's $108 billion guide has not moved.

Ankur Tripathi

Market Analyst

7 min read

Sep 16, 2026